Highlights from the October, 2009 (No. 40) issue:

Recent developments:
- Economy reaches the bottom of recession.

- Personal consumption contracts at a slower pace.
- Decline in investments slows down.
- Following its countercyclical rise, government consumption levels off.
- Narrowing of trade and current account deficit.
- Sluggish real sector activity.
- Employment drops.
- The average net wage remains roughly unchanged.
- Strong contraction in monetary aggregates; slowdown in credit activity.
- Inflation eases.
- Public debt growth accelerates.
- Serious deterioration of fiscal position called for urgent stabilization measures.
- New fiscal policy medium-term projections.

Projections:
- GDP projected to contract 5.5 percent in 2009 before gradual recovery in 2010.
- Sluggish recovery of private consumption.  
- Weak investment outlook.
- Current account deficit to shrink to 4.2 percent in 2009.
- The end-of-year unemployment rate should rise to 16 percent.
- Inflation expected to remain subdued.
- Monetary and credit aggregates should rebound in 2010.
- Fiscal deficit expected at 3 percent of GDP.

Summary of projections

Croatian Economic Outlook Quarterly