Interpretation of the CEIZ
index up to March 2013
In March this year the CEIZ
index registered negative values for the sixth time in a row and it declined 0.26 index
points compared to last month. Since August 2008, the year-on-year changes
have also been negative, although the latest data for March suggest a slight slowdown
in the year-on-year decline. Even though the CEIZ index in February registered
a moderate growth, total data for the first quarter indicate an additional
slowdown of Croatian economy, compared to the last quarter 2012. Therefore, the
decline of seasonally adjusted GDP is expected in the first quarter 2013 as
well, which points to the ongoing recession.
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model.
The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.