The latest issue of Economic Trends and Economic Policy brings an analysis of current economic trends and two research papers, one dealing with the ability of consumers to predict inflation dynamics and the other with the determinants of low capital inflows volatility in Croatia. In the 131st edition of our publication, you can also read a review of the book Complex Evolutionary Dynamics in Urban-Regional and Ecologic-Economic Systems: From Catastrophe to Chaos and Beyond.
 
The overview of current economic developments, prepared by Tanja Broz, Goran Buturac, Ivana Rašić Bakarić and Sunčana Slijepčević from the Institute of Economics, Zagreb, and Dinko Pavuna and Dragica Smilaj from the Ministry of Finance, points to a deepening recession. More… (Note: This article is available only in Croatian.)
 
The research paper “Can Croatian Consumers Predict Inflation Dynamics?” by Petar Sorić touches upon the psychological factors driving inflation. Applying the Carlson-Parkin method on consumer survey results, a direct measure of expected inflation is obtained. Its predictive characteristics regarding actual inflation dynamics are examined. It is found that Croatian consumers tend to produce biased expectations of actual inflation; hence they are proven not to be strictly rational in forming inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the consumers’ expectation errors are not significantly influenced by the other observed macroeconomic variables.
 
In the paper “Determinants of Low Capital Inflows Volatility in Croatia”, authors Tomislav Globan and Vladimir Arčabić first analyze whether there have been significant differences in the levels of volatility of foreign capital inflows in Croatia in relation to ten comparable post-transition European countries over the past fifteen years. The results show that capital inflows in Croatia have been less volatile than in other post-transition countries in the observed period. In the second part of the paper it is empirically tested whether such low volatility of Croatian capital inflows can be attributed to the differences in economic fundamentals between Croatia and other selected countries. (Note: The full article is available only in Croatian).
 
In the latest edition of our publication, Željka Kordej-De Villa brings a review of the book Complex Evolutionary Dynamics in Urban-Regional and Ecologic-Economic Systems: From Catastrophe to Chaos and Beyond written by John Barkley Rosser, Jr. (Note: This review is available only in Croatian.)