CEIZ index
CEIZ index for December 2025: 3.0 percent GDP growth in 2025
February 16, 2026
In December 2025, the CEIZ index decreased in value by 0.31 index points compared to the same month in 2024. At the same time, compared to November 2025, the index value increased by 0.46 points. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, the average value of the CEIZ index in the fourth quarter of last year recorded a growth of 0.22 points.
The described index movements suggest that, compared to the same quarter in 2024, GDP rose by 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the annual GDP growth rate recorded in the third quarter of 2025. According to these estimates, the total annual GDP growth rate in 2025 would amount to 3.0 percent. When observing seasonally adjusted data, according to the estimates based on CEIZ index movements, GDP grew by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.