CEIZ index
CEIZ index for July 2025: Slower growth in economic activity at the very beginning of the third quarter
September 19, 2025
In July 2025, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 1.33 index points compared to the same month in 2024. At the same time, the index value dropped by 0.53 index points compared to the previous month. When observing the index components, three of the index components recorded a lower seasonally adjusted value in July 2025 compared to June 2025: real retail trade, the number of tourist arrivals, and state budget income from VAT revenues. The volume of industrial production index component recorded a higher seasonally adjusted monthly value. All components except real retail trade also recorded a decrease in value compared to the same month last year.
The index movements in July suggest slower economic activity at the very beginning of the third quarter of 2025. Based on the index value movements, we can estimate that the annual GDP change rate in the Croatian economy in the third quarter of 2025 will amount to 2.6 percent, but a more precise assessment will be possible when the index values for August and September 2025 become available.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.