Exploring the Crime Seasonality in Croatia – CRIS

Commissioned by: The Institute of Economics, Zagreb – Tvoj Grant@EIZ
Project manager: Vedran Recher
Collaborator: Ivica Rubil
Project duration: February 13, 2018 – September 30, 2018

The principal objective of the study was to describe the seasonal patterns of various crime categories in Croatia. Croatia is an interesting case-study in the context of research into the relationship between tourism and crime, since tourism is Croatia's most important economic sector. Preliminary analysis showed that the season of property crime rates closely follows touristic season during the summer (July-August). The research focused on quantifying the increase in crime as a negative externality of touristic activity.

Project activities included the preparation of a database on criminal offenses by county and month, for the period 1998 – 2016, studying the existing research on the effects of tourism on crime and choosing the appropriate methodology for estimating this effect in Croatian context, as well as the estimation of the effect of tourism on crime rates.

Data obtained from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Interior were merged into one database, containing the data on tourist arrivals, overnight stays by month and county for the period 1998 – 2016. The panel model with fixed effects for county and month-year interaction was estimated as means to control for unobserved heterogeneity. By estimating the effect of tourism intensity on various categories of crime, it was possible to observe larger influence of tourism on Croatian economy. Moreover, by using the data from the Ministry of Interior on estimated damages from certain crimes, it was possible to quantify the negative externality of tourism in the context of crime.