The effects of the new Pension Insurance Act on the choice of pension type

Commissioned by: The Association of Pension Fund Management Companies and Pension Insurance Companies
Project duration: July 23, 2025 - November 30, 2025
Project manager: Danijel Nestić


Summary:
 
The project will consider the key changes in the pension system introduced by the new Pension Insurance Act of June 2025 and assess the effects of these changes on the choice between a first-pillar pension only and a combined pension. The impact assessment will be based on a pension calculation model for hypothetical insured persons with predefined careers and a set of assumptions about future macroeconomic developments. The model will estimate the evolution of pension benefits paid by the first and second pension pillars in the next 20 years.

Questions to be answered by the research:

1. What do we know about the pension choice of new retirees so far?
2. How will the new Pension Insurance Act alter the pension benefits of selected categories of beneficiaries (early pensions, lowest pensions, people with low/high salaries, mothers, people with increasing income during their working lives)
3. What are the expected effects on the choice of pension type in the event of a positive/negative shock in the rate of return of pension funds?
4. How could the effects of increasing pension rights in the first pillar on pension choice be avoided in future legislative changes?
 

RESEARCH AREA: Pensions and ageing