Forecasts and development scenarios of the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County economy - inputs to the county physical plan

Commissioned by: The Institute for Physical Planning of the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County
Project duration: November, 2010 – February, 2011
Project manager: Nenad Starc, PhD
Collaborators: Ivana Rašić, Davor Mikulić

Brief outline: 
Forecasts of economic growth in the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County were prepared as analytical inputs in the process of preparation of the new County Physical Plan. As economic forecasts rely on existing trends and time series of available data, development trends in the county economy were analysed and compared to development trends in the Croatian economy. Factor and cluster analysis was then applied in order to reveal specific features of the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County and allow for grouping of similar counties into a wider region which could be subjected to specific development measures and preparation of specific development programmes. Factor and cluster analysis marked regions which did not necessarily fit into existing administrative division but were functional and big enough to serve as an area that could benefit most from targeted development measures. As the Primorje-Gorski Kotar County is pronouncedly heterogeneous, a subregional analysis was applied as well. Subregions were defined in accordance with demographic analytical inputs prepared for the planning purposes. 
Three projections of the county economic growth until the year of 2020 were made on the basis of existing trends in the county and national economy. Two of them assumed no improvements in the existing county development policy. The third assumed certain additional instruments and development measures and appeared most optimistic. In the end some attention was given to common assumptions about long-run sustainability of nonrenewable resources, above all of sustainability of energy resources. These assumptions had become unacceptable in long-run economic forecasting and development policy making. County economic policy-makers were advised to accept the forthcoming relative shortages of energy resources and introduce new, better adapted policy instruments and measures.