CEIZ index
CEIZ index for March 2025: Annual GDP growth slows down in the first quarter of 2025
May 13, 2025
In March 2025, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 0.5 index points compared to February 2025, while compared to the same month last year, it recorded a drop of 2.92 index points. The index value has been continuously decreasing on a monthly level since November 2024, i.e., a drop has been recorded during the last five months for which the index value has been estimated. Compared to the same month last year, one index component recorded an increase in value in March 2025: the volume of industrial production. The other three index components-number of tourist arrivals, real retail trade, and state budget income from VAT revenues-recorded a decrease.
Based on the index movements, it can be estimated that the Croatian economy will grow by 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, which means that the annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 could slow down significantly compared to the annual growth rates recorded in the previous five quarters.
* Monthly assessment of GDP growth rate based on CEIZ index value is indicative and should be used primarily as information on the current condition and trend of the business cycle in Croatia.
Real GDP
In %, change when compared to the same period of the previous year
What is CEIZ?
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434-445. The CEIZ index is useful in three ways. First, it is a single-number business cycle indicator containing information that would otherwise have to be accrued by analyzing a large number of economic series. Second, unlike the GDP series, it provides monthly estimates on the state of the economy, thus providing information on fine changes that took place in a short period of time. Third, the CEIZ index is available one to three months prior to quarterly GDP estimates, meaning that policy-makers and the general public can observe the current state of the economy in a timely manner.
The index is to be interpreted in such a way that the positive values represent economic growth while the negative ones represent a decreased economic activity.
Attached documents
Otvorena dozvola RH
Coincident Economic Index of the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (CEIZ) is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition. Consequently, the CEIZ index value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the present state of the economy. The CEIZ index was constructed by applying in parallel a dynamic factor model and a Markov switching model. Details on the CEIZ index methodology are described in the paper: Rašić Bakarić, Ivana, Marina Tkalec and Maruška Vizek, 2016, “Constructing a Composite Coincident Indicator for a Post-Transition Country”, Ekonomska istraživanja (Economic Research), 29 (1), pp. 434–445.