Sources of export growth and industrial development: empirical evidence from Croatia (INDUS)

Commissioned by: The Institute of Economics, Zagreb 
Project duration: February 17, 2017 – September 30, 2017 
Project manager: Goran Buturac, PhD
Collaborators: Petra PalićDavor Mikulić, PhD

Brief outline: 
The research project will quantify the sources of manufacturing export growth in the Republic of Croatia and their contribution to the overall economy. The research objectives will be achieved by applying the constant market share method (CMS) and input-output model. While the CMS method quantifies the factors which explain trends in manufacturing exports, the input-output method quantifies the impacts of manufacturing exports on other domestic sectors. Expected results will quantify the sources of export growth of Croatian manufacturing: the total effect (TE), competitiveness effect (CE), product effect (PE) and geographical effect (GE). Also, the quantifications of sources of export growth will determine their contributions to the total export changes. Applying the input-output model, the direct and indirect impacts of export changes on output, gross value added (GVA) and employment will be estimated. Finally, the impacts of the analyzed sources of export growth on economic activity will be discussed, as well as expected changes in the export and economic activities in the upcoming period.