Sources of export growth and industrial development: empirical evidence from Croatia (INDUS)

Commissioned by: The Institute of Economics, Zagreb 
Project duration: February 17, 2017 – September 30, 2017 
Project manager: Goran Buturac, PhD
Collaborators: Petra PalićDavor Mikulić, PhD

Brief outline: 
The research project quantified the sources of manufacturing export growth in the Republic of Croatia and their contribution to the overall economy. The research objectives were achieved by applying the constant market share method (CMS) and input-output model. While the CMS method quantified the factors which explained trends in manufacturing exports, the input-output method quantified the impacts of manufacturing exports on other domestic sectors. Expected results quantified the sources of export growth of Croatian manufacturing: the total effect (TE), competitiveness effect (CE), product effect (PE) and geographical effect (GE). Also, the quantifications of sources of export growth determined their contributions to the total export changes. Applying the input-output model, the direct and indirect impacts of export changes on output, gross value added (GVA) and employment were estimated. Finally, the impacts of the analyzed sources of export growth on economic activity were discussed, as well as expected changes in the export and economic activities in the upcoming period.