Winter is coming! Or not? Policy evaluation in Croatian tourist cities

Commissioned by: CERGE-EI Foundation - GDN RRC 2016 Regional Research Competition 
Project duration: February 8, 2016 – December 23, 2016
Project manager: Marina Tkalec, PhD   
Collaborator: Vedran Recher

Brief outline:

Project goals: evaluate the effect of film industry and sport events on tourism outcomes of two counties in Croatia – one of the most popular tourist destinations in Europe; contribute to the development of Croatian tourism – one of the pillars of economic growth in Croatia; emphasize and promote the importance of policy evaluation, city development and tourism development policy in a country highly-dependent on tourism; improve capacity building and promote evidence based policy evaluation among social science researchers. 

Expected results/outputs: a systematical measure of the effect of film industry on tourism in the Dubrovnik county and the effect of World Cup alpine ski race on tourism in Zagreb. 

Activities: estimate the effect of two highly broadcasted events on tourist arrivals in Croatia and use the results to decide if the programs have had a positive effect on tourism in the treated county. 

Methodology: synthetic control methodology developed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003).