Winter is coming! Or not? Policy evaluation in Croatian tourist cities

Commissioned by: CERGE-EI Foundation - GDN RRC 2016 Regional Research Competition 
Project duration: February 8, 2016 – December 23, 2016
Project manager: Marina Tkalec, PhD   
Collaborator: Vedran Recher

Brief outline:

Project goals were to evaluate the effect of film industry and sport events on tourism outcomes of two counties in Croatia – one of the most popular tourist destinations in Europe; contribute to the development of Croatian tourism – one of the pillars of economic growth in Croatia; emphasize and promote the importance of policy evaluation, city development and tourism development policy in a country highly-dependent on tourism; improve capacity building and promote evidence based policy evaluation among social science researchers. 

The result/output was a systematical measure of the effect of film industry on tourism in the Dubrovnik county and the effect of World Cup alpine ski race on tourism in Zagreb. 

Activities included estimating the effect of two highly broadcasted events on tourist arrivals in Croatia and using the results to decide if the programs had a positive effect on tourism in the treated county. 

Methodology was synthetic control methodology developed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003).